Parameter Heterogeneity and Model Uncertainty in Growth Empirics

Prof. Chris Papageorgiou (Louisiana State University) - March 19-21, 2007

 

Recent papers by Brock and Durlauf (2000) and Durlauf (2001) argue that the conventional Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) cross-country linear regression model imposes strong homogeneity assumptions on the growth process. Assuming parameter homogeneity in growth regressions is equivalent to assuming that all countries have an identical Cobb-Douglas (CD) aggregate production function. This is clearly an implausible assumption as there is nothing in the empirical or theoretical growth literature to suggest that the effect of a change in a particular variable (such as education or the savings rate) on economic growth is the same across countries. In the words of Brock and Durlauf “... the assumption of parameter homogeneity seems particularly inappropriate when one is studying complex heterogenous objects such as countries.”

 

Lecturer: Prof. Chris Papageorgiou (Louisiana State University & International Monetary Fund)

 

Dates:
March 19: 01.30 to 03.00 p.m. and 3.30 to 5.00 p.m.
March 20: 10.00 to 12.30 a.m. and 2.00 to 4.00 p.m.
March 21: 10.00 to 12.30 a.m. and 2.00 to 4.00 p.m.

 

Room:
ZUE G 1 (Zürichbergstrasse 18)

 

A short description of the course, including contents and references, is available here.

 

Downloads:
Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour (Durlauf and Johnson, 1995)
Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation (Hansen, 2000)
Model Uncertainty in Cross-Country Regressions (Fernandez, Ley and Steel, 2001)
The Solow Model with CES Technology: Nonlinearities and Parameter Heterogeneity (Masanjala and Papgeorgiou, 2004)
Nonlinearities in Capital-Skill Complementarity (Papageorgiou and Chmelarova, 2004)
Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach (Sala-i-Martin, Doppelhofer and Miller, 2004)
Rough and Lonely Road to Prosperity: A reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa
using Bayesian Model Averaging (Masanjala and Papageorgiou, 2006)
Unraveling the Fortunes of the Fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) Approach (Eicher, Papageorgiou and Roehn, 2007)
Initial Conditions and Post-War Growth in sub-Saharan Africa (Masanjala and Papageorgiou, 2007)

 

In case of any questions please contact Thomas Steger